Preschool prediction of early school performance: Relationship of McCarthy scales of children's abilities prior to school entry to achievement in kindergarten, first, and second grades

Abstract

Two studies assessing the predictive validity of the McCarthy Scales of Children's Abilities (MSCA) are reported. In Study 1, the MSCA was administered prior to school entry to a stratified sample of 129 children chosen from a countywide cohort, with oversampling of those at risk for developmental delay. California Achievement Tests (CATs), retention, and special education outcomes were assessed in kindergarten, first, and second grades. Preschool MSCA scale scores showed significant positive correlation with achievement outcomes ( r=.35–.70). Children who scored low (<68 or between 68 and 84) on the MSCA General Cognitive Index (GCI) had significantly lower CAT scores in all grades than did children scoring within the normal range (≥84) on the GCI. By second grade 94% of children scoring less than 68 on the preschool GCI and 74% of those scoring between 68 and 84 on the GCI had failed a grade, had been placed in special education classes, or were scoring in the bottom 20% of their cohort on the CATs in that year. In Study 2, these results were replicated through first grade for a second cohort.