Prerequisites and scenarios for the EU economy transformation inlight of Industry 4.0 development

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to verify the condition of European Union economy and its ability to effectively implement the concept of sustainable development in the era of the fourth industrial revolution. To achieve the goal settled by this research, we used the technical indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence), based on the assessment of the convergence and divergence of moving averages of macroeconomic indicators. The studies carried out made it possible to identify three scenarios for the state of the EU economy after 2022. All these scenarios pose a high risk of a crisis phenomena in this economic system. According to the optimistic scenario, after 2022, a downward correctional wave is predicted in the EU-27 economy with the emergence of a situation similar to the situation in 2008. The search for a new economic model based on the active implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies can become a way for the EU economy to recover from the crisis and move to a qualitatively new level of socio-economic development.