Preparing the Cyber Battlefield: Assessing a Novel Escalation Risk in a Sino-American Crisis (Fall 2020)

Abstract

Do cyber capabilities create novel risks of a future political crisis between the United States and China escalating into a conflict? This article outlines one potential pathway for interstate crises to escalate: the use of force in response to adversary hacking operations that could enable high-end cyber attacks. Often known as operational preparation of the environment or OPE, these acts lay the groundwork for future attacks but are difficult to distinguish from espionage. While some scholars argue that states might respond to the discovery of an intruder with the use of force, others have found little empirical evidence that cyber capabilities affect interstate conflict dynamics. To assess these competing claims, we examine Chinese and U.S. leadership views, organizational and operational practices for cyber conflict, and the bilateral cyber relationship. We conclude that the risk of inadvertent escalation due to cyber capabilities in a future Sino-American crisis cannot be dismissed.