Preparing stream flow drought severity–duration–frequency curves using threshold level method

Abstract

Drought is a natural phenomenon which occurs in different climate regimes. In the present study, hydrological drought of the Roud Zard basin has been investigated based on run theory. Daily runoff data of Mashin hydrometery station during 1970 to 2012 was assessed using 70 % of mean daily runoff as threshold level. Results showed that the maximum drought duration of 309 days occurred in 1998 and 1999 and max drought deficit of 117.217 million cubic meters per second in 1983 with 275 days duration. Time series of the annual maxima values of duration and volume deficit showed similar trend of increase and decreasing. Burr statistical distribution, as the most suitable one fitted to the drought duration data, forecasted 339 days duration for drought event with 20 years return period and generalized extreme value forecasted 37.9 million cubic meters of deficit volume for this return period. Severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves were prepared, classifying drought durations to four intervals and fitting statistical distribution to each. Resulted SDF curves showed that, in each period, increase of duration resulted in increased value of the volume deficit with a non-linear trend, though predicted drought volume with 20 years return period was 2.1 million cubic meters for 1 to 10 days duration, 6.9 for 11 to 30 days, 34.5 for 31 to 120 days, and 79.1 for more than 120 days duration drought event. Drought deficit volume increasing rate was also different in each class of duration interval. Drought SDF curves derived in this study can be used to quantify water deficit for natural stream and reservoir. SDFs could also be extended to allow for drought regional frequency analysis to be used in ungauged sites.