Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change on the Central South Coast of England: A Framework for Future Risk Management

Abstract

ABSTRACT There has been considerable research into the science of global climate change, however, there is presently little guidance for coastal authorities on accounting for the physical impacts of ongoing climate change in future land use planning and coastal defence policy. For the central south coast of England, this paper briefly identifies ‘coastal climate change scenarios’for the next 80 years. A qualitative geomorphological appraisal of the potential impacts of these changes on coastal landforms and processes is presented, based upon generic ‘coastal behaviour systems’ that take account of the various sensitivities to change of the natural and managed coastline. Functions such as the sensitivity of coastal slopes to increasing effective rainfall, and barrier beaches to increased water levels, are considered. The likely future ‘behaviour’ of these systems, and in particular the potential for climate-induced changes, are identified. The likely response of the coastal systems then provides an objecti...