Abstract
Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to drought because of its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors of agriculture, hydroenergy and fisheries. Recurring droughts continue to impact rural livelihoods and degrade the environment. Drought severity in southern Africa is exacerbated by poor levels of preparedness and low adaptive capacity. Whilst weather extremes and hazards are inevitable, the preparedness to manage such hazards determines their impact and whether they become disasters. Southern Africa is often caught unprepared by drought as existing early warning systems lack the drought forecastingcomponent, which often results in reactionary interventions as opposed to well-planned and proactive response mechanisms. This study assesses the spatio-temporal changes of rainfall and aridity in southern Africa through an analysis of long-term precipitation and evaporation trends from 1960 to 2007. Stakeholder consultation was conducted in Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during the peak of the 2015/16 drought, focusing on overall drought impacts, current water resource availability, existing early warning systems, adaptation mechanisms and institutional capacity to mitigate and managedroughts as part of overall disaster risk reduction strategies. Average rainfall has decreased by 26% in the region between 1960 and 2007, and aridity has increased by 11% between 1980 and 2007. The absence of drought forecasting and lack of institutional capacity to mitigate drought impede regional drought risk reduction initiatives. Existing multi-hazard early warning systems in the region focus on flooding and drought monitoring and assessment. Drought forecasting is often not given due consideration, yet it is a key component of early warning and resilience building. We propose a regional drought early warning framework, emphasising the importance of both monitoring and forecasting as being integral to a drought early warning system and building resilience to drought.
Highlights
Drought occurrence is intensifying both in frequency and severity in southern Africa, inflicting serious economic and social losses and worsening the vulnerabilities of the region (Tirado et al, 2015; Urama and Ozor, 2010)
This study focuses on meteorological drought, which is a precursor to the other types of drought
We developed a framework for a drought early warning system (DEWS) exclusively targeting the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region
Summary
Drought occurrence is intensifying both in frequency and severity in southern Africa, inflicting serious economic and social losses and worsening the vulnerabilities of the region (Tirado et al, 2015; Urama and Ozor, 2010). The complex and slow onset of drought, as well as its diverse origins and occurrence at different temporal and spatial scales, and widespread nature complicate its forecasting, monitoring and management (Hao et al, 2014). There is significant progress globally in drought forecasting and monitoring, especially with the increased availability of satellite-based products (AghaKouchak et al, 2015; Hao et al, 2014). As drought is generally widespread in nature, adaptation at regional level, as well as drought forecasting and management by respective national institutions, remains elusive owing to lack of institutional capacity and fragmented mandates. Three types of methods have been used to forecast drought: statistical, dynamical and hybrid methods (Mariotti et al 2013; Pozzi et al, 2013). Statistical forecasting uses empirical relationships of historical records, taking different influencing factors as predictors. Dynamical forecasting refers to the use of general circulation
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