Preoperative Risk Assessment for Loss of Independence Following Hepatic Resection in Elderly Patients: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

Abstract

To establish a preoperative risk assessment method for loss of independence after hepatic resection. Hepatic resection often results in loss of independence in preoperatively self-sufficient elderly people. Elderly patients should therefore be carefully selected for surgery. In this prospective, multicenter study, 347 independently-living patients aged ≥65 years, scheduled for hepatic resection, were divided into study (n = 232) and validation (n = 115) cohorts. We investigated the risk factors for postoperative loss of independence in the study cohort and verified our findings with the validation cohort. Loss of independence was defined as transfer to a rehabilitation facility, discharge to residence with home-based healthcare, 30-day readmission for poor functionality, and 90-day mortality (except for cancer-related deaths). In the study cohort, univariate and multivariate analyses indicated that frailty, age ≥ 76 years, and open surgery were independent risk factors for postoperative loss of independence. Proportions of patients with postoperative loss of independence in the study and validation cohorts were respectively 3.0% and 0% among those with no applicable risk factors, 8.1% and 12.5% among those with 1 applicable risk factor, 25.5% and 25.0% among those with 2 applicable risk factors, and 56.3% and 50.0% among those with all 3 factors applicable (P < 0.001 for both cohorts). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the study and validation groups were 0.777 and 0.783, respectively. Preoperative risk assessments using these 3 factors may be effective in predicting and planning for postoperative loss of independence after hepatic resection in elderly patients.