Preoperative Predictors of Prolonged Opioid Use in the 6 Months After Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Abstract

Prolonged postoperative opioid use increases the risk for new postsurgical opioid use disorder. We evaluated preoperative phenotypic factors predicting prolonged postoperative opioid use. We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort (n=108) undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis with 6-week and 6-month follow-up. Current opioid use and psychosocial, pain, and opioid-related characteristics were assessed at preoperative baseline. Primary outcomes were days/week of opioid use at follow-up. At 6 weeks, preoperative opioid use and greater cumulative opioid exposure, depression, catastrophizing, anxiety, pain interference, sleep disturbance, and central sensitization were significantly associated with more days/week of opioid use after controlling for contemporaneous pain intensity. Prior euphoric response to opioids were also significant predictors at 6 months. All 6-week predictors except anxiety remained significant after controlling for preoperative opioid use; at 6 months, cumulative opioid exposure, catastrophizing, pain interference, and sleep disturbance remained significant after this adjustment ( P <0.05). In multivariable models, a psychosocial factor reflecting negative affect, sleep, and pain accurately predicted 6-week opioid use (area under the curve=0.84). A combined model incorporating psychosocial factor scores, opioid-related factor scores, and preoperative opioid use showed near-perfect predictive accuracy at 6 months (area under the curve=0.97). Overall, preoperative psychosocial, pain-related, and opioid-related phenotypic characteristics predicted prolonged opioid use after total knee arthroplasty.