Preoperative MRI-based estimation of risk for positive resection margin after radical prostatectomy in patients with prostate cancer: development and validation of a simple scoring system.

Abstract

To develop a simplified MRI-based model to predict the risk for positive surgical margins (PSMs) after radical prostatectomy (RP) in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). Consecutive patients who underwent RP for PCa were retrospectively identified from a tertiary referral hospital. Patients who underwent RP between January 2014 and June 2014 were assigned as derivation cohort (n = 330) and those between January 2018 and February 2018 were assigned as validation cohort (n = 100). MRI-based predictors associated with PSM were assessed: tumor size, tumor-capsule contact length, the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) category, tumor location (tumor contact to the apex or posterolateral side near the neurovascular bundle), apical depth, and prostate volume. A prediction model was developed by using multivariable logistic regression, and then it was transformed into a scoring system. The prediction and calibration performance of this scoring system was evaluated using the C statistics and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. A total of 121 (36.7%) and 32 (32.0%) of patients in the derivation and validation cohorts had PSMs after RP. The scoring system consisted of the following variables: tumor-capsule contact length, PI-RADS category, tumor located at the apex and/or posterolateral side. This scoring system provided good prediction performance for PSM in the derivation (C statistics, 0.80 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.85]) and validation (C statistics, 0.77 [95% CI: 0.68, 0.87]) cohorts, and also showed good calibration in both cohorts (p = 0.83 and 0.86, respectively). An MRI-based scoring system can help estimate the risk of PSM after RP. • An MRI-based scoring system served as a tool to estimate the risk of positive surgical margin (C statistics, 0.80 and 0.77 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively) after radical prostatectomy. • Tumor with contact to the apex or posterolateral aspect, the tumor contact length to capsule, and higher PI-RADS category were independent predictors for the presence of positive resection margins after radical prostatectomy in men with prostate cancer. • High-risk patients as determined by the scoring system demonstrated adverse post-surgical outcomes compared with low- or intermediate-risk patients, in regard to longer length (mean length, 13.0 mm versus 3.9 mm in low risk or 6.2 mm in intermediate risk; p ≤ 0.001) and higher Gleason grade at the margin (grades 4 and 5 in 69.4% and 20.4% versus 16.7% and 16.7% in low risk or 46.7% and 5.4% in intermediate risk; p < 0.001).