Premonition-driven deep learning model for short-term ship violent roll motion prediction based on the hull attitude premonition mechanism

Abstract

Ship transit forecasting can provide advanced movement information to a multidimensional wave motion compensation system. However, traditional deep learning models based on data-driven or physical data have difficulty in accurately predicting the rapid variations in ship motion attitudes that frequently occur in complex ocean environments. Therefore, a premonition-driven deep learning model is proposed in this paper to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of ship violent roll motion. This model applies precursor information to predict premonitory values of ship prospective motion attitudes based on an integrated statistical regression model and then employs these premonitory values to revise the outputs of the deep learning time series model. First, a hull attitude premonition mechanism is presented based on biological premonition cognitive behaviour, which captures the correlation relationships between extreme values by downgrading the globally continuous time series prediction problem to a time-independent regression problem. The corresponding methods for predicting local extreme values and deep feedforward neural network cluster are established based on these correlation relationships between the extreme values to achieve precise premonitory values. Second, the time and amplitude variables of the extreme angle values are transformed to countdown time variables and sequential sets of premonitory angle values. Two types of premonition units and their respective premonitory long short-term memory neural networks are constructed to upgrade the regression problem to a globally continuous time series prediction problem. Finally, a single-step output recurrent strategy is applied to forecast the short-term ship motion attitude for fifteen seconds by considering eleven initially predicted points across the two datasets. In sixty-six simulation experiments, the mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error of the premonition-driven long short-term memory neural networks are considerably lower than those of traditional deep learning models. These simulation experiments verify that the premonition-driven deep learning model can effectively forecast short-term violent ship roll motion and provide safeguards for cargo transfer.