PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron‐Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Abstract

AbstractThis work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross‐energy, cross‐L‐shell, and cross‐pitch angle coherence associated with wave‐electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Polar Operational Environmental Satellite in low‐Earth orbit, and provides high‐fidelity nowcast (multiple‐hour prediction) and forecast (>~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L‐shells between 2.8 and 7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1‐day forewarning time but also accurately specify the evolving event‐specific electron spatial distributions afterward. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long‐term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous satellite. This new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future and further adds new science utility to existing and next‐generation low‐Earth orbit space infrastructure.