Preliminary study on the stalagmite <italic>δ</italic><sup>18</sup>O record prediction of the monsoon boundary zone in the northern China

Abstract

Based on high-resolution oxygen isotope records of stalagmites collected from Wanxiang and Huangye Caves, a prediction experiment for precipitation over the next 20 years is performed, using the time domain combined model. The study indicates that this model can be used to determine the significant period of the time series and fit the original record well. The prediction accords with modern meteorological observation, and it is thus credible to a certain extent. Compared with tree-ring prediction of the monsoon boundary zone in northern China, the result indicates that precipitation may reach a minimum during 2012-2013, and first increases and later decreases during the subsequent 20 years.