Preliminary Study on Solar Radiation Forecasting with WRF Model

Abstract

Weather Research Forecast(WRF) model was used in experimental forecast of hourly solar radiation in four typical months in Beijing area. The solar radiation observational data of Nanjiao weather observatory were used to evaluate and correct the forecasting result. Conclusions were as follow s: the forecasting result of solar radiation with 5 km horizontal resolution was very similar to that with 1 km horizontal resolution in condition of the existing model. The forecast effect of solar radiation in sunny days was the best with WRF model,the secondary was in cloudy days,and the worst was in fully cloudy days or rainy days. Through analysis of error decomposition,the contribution of phase bias,system bias and amplitude bias was different obviously in each month. The ordinary linear correction method was useful to remove most of system bias and amplitude bias obviously,and in general,the correcting effect of double bias correction method was slightly better than that by linear regression method. The phase bias was difficult to eliminate only by ordinary linear correction method,so a new correction method should be adopted.