PRELIMINARY STUDY OF IMPACT WARMING EFFECT TO SPRAT QUALITY CHARACTERISTICS IN RUSSIAN WATERS OF THE BLACK SEA (1951-2019)

Abstract

Preliminary study of impact of temperature factor to sprat quality characteristics in Russian waters of the Black sea in period 1951–2019 was performed. In this research statistical hyphothesis about relationship between indicator sea surface temperature factor near to Chernomorskoe, Yalta, Feodosia and long-term sprat mean weight fishery statistics was done. Linear relationship hyphothesis performed by Pearson correlation test. Preliminary cross-correlation test results shows significant moderate relationship between temperature factor average and mean sprat weights (r = –0,60). After preliminary diagnostics input data was smoothed by polynomial regression to reduce interannual fluctuations and cross-correlation test to smoothed data was repeated. Correlation test by smoothed data indicate strong negative (r = –0,75) relationship between long-term sea surface temperature in all indicator points and mean sprat weights and high powerful relationship between sea surface temperature and oldest sprat classess (r = –0,86). Performed study underline the primary part of temperature factor and warming effect to degradation result in Black sprat fishery quality characteristcs. Global warming effect starting from 1990 made significant negative impact into sprat environment in the Black sea