Abstract
In this paper, we present a numerical simulation of the propagation of a tsunami in the East China Sea, which might be induced by a hypothetical M8.5 earthquake in Okinawa Trough. Our results show that the initial maximum wave height of tsunami could reach as high as 4.3 m for the hypothetical earthquake. It would take 3.5∼4 hours for the tsunami to propagate to the coast of Zhejiang Province, and 7∼8 hours to the near-shore of Shanghai. The peak tsunami height could be up to about 2 m in the coast of Zhejiang Province. Based on the numerical experiments, we plot the arrival time contours of tsunami in East China Sea and time history curves on the three observational stations, and discussed the significance of the pre-analysis.
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