Preliminary evaluation of a radioactive waste repository safety performance by a Monte Carlo simulation-based reliability model

Abstract

Abstract Disposal facilities are designed to provide long-term isolation of the wastes from the human environment by means of a system of barriers, both engineered and natural. In this regard, it is required that the containment function of the multi-barrier system be evaluated by a quantitative risk analysis procedure, also called performance assessment. This entails the implementation of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment model for representing the stochastic failure behavior of the repository barriers, estimating the release rates of radionuclides into the groundwater stream and the doses from subsequent ingestion of drinking water. To this aim, a Monte Carlo simulation scheme is provided within a reliability modelling approach for the safety performance analysis of a repository, accounting also for barrier degradation processes. An application to a case study of the literature is presented to validate the approach and demonstrate its simplicity and flexibility.