Preliminary Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak Using 3-Staged Model e-ISHR.

Abstract

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world. Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic. Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation. In this paper, we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model. Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better. Besides, in order to take the government’s control and people’s awareness into consideration, we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease. By using this e-ISHR model, we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei. We also change some of parameters in our model. The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.