Preliminary Analysis of Taxiway Deviation Data and Estimates of Airplane Wingtip Collision Probability

Abstract

The introduction of new large airplanes (NLAs), initially the Airbus A380, into existing older airports poses a wide range of dimensional clearance issues, primarily related to wingspan and tail height. Many existing airports cannot meet FAA’s Airplane Design Group VI (ADG VI) design standards appropriate to NLA. FAA is conducting ongoing data collection of measured deviations from taxiway centerlines experienced by Boeing-747 airplanes under various weather and visibility conditions, to allow the estimation of the collision risk while taxiing. A preliminary analysis was conducted on the risk of collisions involving airplanes in common taxiing situations, based on FAA data collected at Anchorage International Airport in Alaska from September 2000 to April 2002, and at New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport (JFK) from June 1999 to February 2000. Investigated were 29,544 deviations at Anchorage and 20,702 deviations at JFK. Analyses were performed to assess probabilities of large deviations. The probabilities were finally used to assess the risk of NLA wingtip contact with fixed or movable objects and the joint probability of collision between two airplanes that are taxiing simultaneously. The probability of wingtip collision between two taxiing A380 airplanes is calculated as 1.74 × 10-2 for ADG Code V taxiways, 4.91 × 10-15 for a JFK taxiway separation of 300 ft, and 4.42 × 10-23 for ADG Code VI taxi-ways. The probability of collision between a taxiing B-747-400 and an A380 is 1.5 × 10-11 for ADG Code V taxiways, 4.91 × 10-15 for a JFK taxiway separation of 300 ft, and 2.12 × 10-23 for ADG Code VI taxiways.