Preignition risk mitigation model for analysis of wildfires caused by electrical power conductors

Abstract

Most wildfires started by electrical power are caused by the contact of trees and surface fuels with power lines. We propose a preignition risk mitigation model to reduce the risk of crown fires and prevent power outages. An optimization formulation model considering power flow under wildfire conditions is proposed. The heating and cooling processes are formulated to find the conductor temperature. We investigate the heat energy of conductors’ surface to fuels and trees. We determine the probability of wildfire risk using the non-stationary weather dynamics due to climate change and surface fuel variable. Moreover, we propose a fuel treatment strategy for managing vegetation and surface fuel variable that reduces the risk of wildfires around power transmission lines. Combining all these together, a mathematical model is proposed that minimizes the total expected costs associated with the generator cost and wildfire risks, consistent with conditions for the start and spread of a crown fire.