Prefledging Growth and Recruitment of Female Lesser Scaup

Abstract

ABSTRACTAnnual variation in juvenile recruitment is an important component of duck population dynamics, yet little is known about the factors affecting the probability of surviving and breeding in the first year of life. Two hypothesized mechanisms to explain annual variability are indirect carry‐over effects (COEs) from conditions experienced during the prefledging period and direct effects from climatic conditions during the postfledging period. We used Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber models to estimate apparent survival and detection rates of 643 juvenile female lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) marked just prior to fledging at Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Montana, USA, 2010–2018. We evaluated COEs from hatch date, a hatch date × spring phenology interaction, and conspecific duckling density in addition to a direct climatic effect of winter conditions (indexed by the El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) and spring habitat conditions on the study area. We used growth data from a subset (n = 190) of known‐aged ducklings to estimate the influence of hatch date and conspecific density on prefledging growth to help identify mechanisms underlying COEs. Prefledging growth and juvenile apparent survival were negatively related to measures of conspecific duckling density. We found evidence that detection probability varied annually for juvenile (but not adult) scaup, possibly representing decisions to delay breeding and not return to or remain at the study site in their first year of life. Like with apparent survival, there was suggestive evidence that detection probability decreased with increasing duckling density in the previous year. Hatching date was weakly negatively related to detection probability, but unrelated to apparent survival, whereas neither vital rate was related to winter ENSO index. Our results are consistent with a process where density‐dependent growth rates in the prefledging period carry over to influence fitness in subsequent life‐cycle stages. If this pattern generalizes to other systems, this density COE may have important implications for our understanding of duck population dynamics and reaffirms the importance of maintaining abundant brood‐rearing habitats in conservation and management of ducks. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.