Preface "Hillslope hydrological modelling for landslides prediction"

Abstract

Looking at natural hazards and risks, such as landslides, debris flow and floods, we see a broad range of science fields involved: from earth science to engineering science, to management, policy and social science. Although research on natural hazards and risks contains mono-disciplinary aspects, it is best characterized by its multi-disciplinary nature. Moreover, the link to society has always been a very important driver in natural hazards research, pushed by the need for reliable prediction models to be implemented into early warning systems as well as by the required complete understanding of the physical mechanisms for the design of mitigation works. If we focus on landslide and debris flows as in this special issue of HESS, we will see impressive progress in the geotechnical and slope stability modelling needed for hazard analysis. Similarly, the risk management aspects, such as hazard mapping and risk assessment, have received much attention. Hydrology is an important aspect of landslide and debris flow assessment. Precipitation and snowmelt water infiltration, leading to local pore water pressure increase and/or matric suction decrease, is amongst the most common triggers of landslides. Fundamental knowledge about underlying processes affecting this infiltration process, such as macropore and fissure flow, water repellency, soil structure, soil–plant–atmosphere interactions as well as the effects of land use practices (e.g. deforestation, terracing, grazing), has strongly improved in the last decade or so, with a clear focus on more detailed knowledge of hydrological process dynamics. The hydrological process understanding progressed rapidly under pressure of societal needs such as prediction of discharge generation and contaminant transport, to name a few. Although hydrology research is very strongly linked to natural hazards, such as landslides and debris flows, this improved hydrological knowledge has found its way into the landslide community rather modestly. In particular, the incorporation of hydrological processes into large-scale models is still incomplete and their application to landslide prediction limited. Landslide research tends to be more focused on novel methods to include spatial data and on the practical applicability of, e.g. landslide triggering modelling and statistical analyses for regional hazard and risk assessment. However, without stating that these fields have been fully exploited, we see that in our quantitative landslide and debris flow modelling the inclusion of increased process knowledge seems to lag behind. This in depth process understanding needs to be incorporated in our technical predictions in order to improve the reliability of early warning systems, mitigation works and landslide zonation. This special issue aims to present innovative hydrological research applied to landslide studies to improve the understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns of slope movement mechanisms induced by precipitation. The initiative struck a sympathetic note, as many colleagues were facing these challenges. The topic of hydrology and landslides is finding more and more space in hydrological research, as witnessed by the number of relevant papers published, in special issues, e.g. on hydrology of unstable clay shales (Bogaard et al., 2012) and through the organization of workshops and special conference sessions, such as six EGU sessions on hydrology and landslides, three editions of the Italian Workshop on Landslides mainly dedicated to landslide hydrology (www.iwl.unina2.it), and special sessions at IAEG2014. Therefore, this Special Issue discusses the representation of