Abstract
Tuberculosis (TBC) is a case that is always increasing every year. Assessment of progress and success of pulmonary tuberculosis control in Ponorogo Regency uses indicators of suspicion screening numbers with health promotion, especially pulmonary TB. The purpose of this study was to analyze the prediction of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis based on gender in Ponorogo Regency from 2016 to 2020. This research is a quantitative descriptive study using a cross-sectional design with time series analysis approach with trend method. The population and sample in this study were all data on cases of smear positive lung tuberculosis which included the sex of the patient during 2011-2015 in Ponorogo Regency. Research Results The distribution of smear positive lung TB cases in the period 2011-2015 tended to increase with the number of cases respectively 276, 392, 378, 293 and 334 cases. After predicting, pulmonary TB cases in 2016-2020 will decline with cases of 299, 348, 366, 352, and 306 respectively.Based on the results of time series analysis with the trend method based on gender in Ponorogo Regency in 2016-2020, It is predicted that pulmonary TB cases will continue to increase and it is estimated that in 2018 the highest number of cases is male with 222 cases, and female sex with 141 cases. In conclusion, there has been an increase in cases of pulmonary tuberculosis in men in 2018.Keywords: Incidence Prediction, TB, Gender
Highlights
Tuberculosis (TBC) is a case that is always increasing every year
The purpose of this study was to analyze the prediction of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis based on gender
a quantitative descriptive study using a cross-sectional design with time series analysis approach with trend method
Summary
ABSTRAK Tuberkulosis (TBC) menjadi kasus yang selalu meningkat setiap tahunnya. Penilaian kemajuan dan keberhasilan penanggulangan penyakit Tuberkulosis paru di Kabupaten Ponorogo menggunakan indikator angka penjaringan suspek dengan promosi kesehatan khususnya TB paru. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisa prediksi kejadian penyakit Tuberkulosis Paru Berdasarkan jenis kelamin di Kabupaten Ponorogo Tahun 2016 sampai 2020. Populasi dan sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh data kasus TB Paru BTA Positif yang didalamnya jenis kelamin penderita selama tahun 2011-2015 di Kabupaten Ponorogo. Hasil Penelitian Distribusi kasus TB Paru BTA Positif pada periode tahun 2011-2015 cenderung meningkat dengan jumlah kasus masing-masing [276, 392, 378, 293] dan 334 kasus. Kasus TB Paru pada tahun 2016-2020 akan menurun dengan kasus masing-masing sebesar [299, 348, 366, 352], dan 306. Berdasarkan hasil analisis time series dengan metode trend berdasarkan jenis kelamin di Kabupaten Ponorogo pada tahun 20162020, diprediksikan bahwa kasus TB Paru akan terus meningkat dan diperkirakan pada tahun 2018 jumlah kasus tertinggi terdapat pada jenis kelamin laki-laki dengan jumlah 222 kasus, dan pada jenis kelamin perempuan sebesar 141 kasus. Terjadi peningkatan kasus tuberculosis paru pada jenis kelamin laki-laki ditahun 2018
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