PREDIKSI JUMLAH PEMAKAIAN AIR BERSIH MENGGUNAKAN METODE HYBRID SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA) DAN SARIMA DI PDAM TIRTANADI SIBOLANGIT

Abstract

Clean water is one of the basic human needs that is needed on an ongoing basis. Water has an important role in human life. As the population increases, the use of clean water also increases, resulting in the need for demand for the availability of clean water to continue to increase, this is explained by data from the Central Statistics Agency (2022) that the population growth rate in Sibolangit District from 2021-2022 is 0.25% and that This is also explained by data on the amount of clean water consumption by PDAM Tirtanadi Sibolangit which has increased by 6.5%. The purpose of this study is to apply the SSA-SARIMA hybrid model to predict the amount of clean water consumption in the coming period at PDAM Tirtandi Sibolangit so that there is no shortage and wastage of clean water. Hybrid SSA-SARIMA is a combination of two data analysis methods that take advantage of the advantages of each method, namely Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA). SSA is a technique used to separate signals into periodic and non-periodic components while SARIMA is used to model time series data with trend and seasonal patterns and make predictions for future periods. SARIMA cannot separate periodic and non-periodic signals in data like SSA did. The data used in this study is monthly data on clean water usage from January 2018 to December 2022. The prediction results for the amount of clean water consumption in PDAM Tirtanadi Sibolangit in 2024 use the SSA-SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,0,0) hybrid model. )12 experienced a decrease in the use of clean water with a level of forecasting accuracy having a MAPE value of 6.920446%.