Predictors of Tumor Dynamics Over a 6-Week Course of Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Glioblastoma and the Effect on Survival

Abstract

We present the final analyses of tumor dynamics and their prognostic significance during a 6-week course of concurrent chemoradiotherapy for glioblastoma in the Glioblastoma Longitudinal Imaging Observational study. This is a prospective serial magnetic resonance imaging study in 129 patients with glioblastoma who had magnetic resonance imaging obtained at radiation therapy (RT) planning (F0), fraction 10 (F10), fraction 20 (F20), and 1-month post-RT. Tumor dynamics assessed included gross tumor volume relative to F0 (Vrel) and tumor migration distance (dmigration). Covariables evaluated included: corpus callosum involvement, extent of surgery, O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase methylation, and isocitrate dehydrogenase mutation status. The median Vrel were 0.85 (range, 0.25-2.29) at F10, 0.79 (range, 0.09-2.22) at F20, and 0.78 (range, 0.13-4.27) at 1 month after completion of RT. The median dmigration were 4.7 mm (range, 1.1-20.4 mm) at F10, 4.7 mm (range, 0.8-20.7 mm) at F20, and 6.1 mm (range, 0.0-45.5 mm) at 1 month after completion of RT. Compared with patients who had corpus callosum involvement (n = 26), those without corpus callosum involvement (n = 103) had significant Vrel reduction at F20 (P = .03) and smaller dmigration at F20 (P = .007). Compared with patients who had biopsy alone (n = 19) and subtotal resection (n = 71), those who had gross total resection (n = 38) had significant Vrel reduction at F10 (P = .001) and F20 (P = .001) and a smaller dmigration at F10 (P = .03) and F20 (P = .002). O6-Methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase methylation and isocitrate dehydrogenase mutation status were not significantly associated with tumor dynamics. The median progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) were 8.5 months (95% CI, 6.9-9.9) and 20.4 months (95% CI, 17.6-25.2). In multivariable analyses, patients with Vrel ≥ 1.33 at F10 had worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 4.6; 95% CI, 1.8-11.4; P = .001), and patients with dmigration ≥ 5 mm at 1-month post-RT had worse progression-free survival (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.08-2.87) and OS (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0; P = .007). Corpus callosum involvement and extent of surgery are independent predictors of tumor dynamics during RT and can enable patient selection for adaptive RT strategies. Significant tumor enlargement at F10 and tumor migration 1-month post-RT were associated with poorer OS.