Predictors of Threat and Error Management: Identification of Core Nontechnical Skills and Implications for Training Systems Design

Abstract

The effective management of external threats and errors is essential for enhancing performance and minimizing risk in airline operations. Recent research has reinforced the need to examine a range of nontechnical or crew resource management skills that form threat and error countermeasures. This paper analyzes the predictors of threat and error management in normal flight operations within the context of a Southeast Asian airline. Through the structured observation of crews' performance during normal flight operations, data were collected in relation to a set of contextual factors and nontechnical skills. Crews' threat and error management actions were then analyzed in relation to these factors, and predictive models of threat and error management at various phases of flight were developed. The results of this study demonstrate the ways in which this type of data analysis can highlight the strengths and weaknesses of operational performance. This type of performance evaluation is shown to offer organizations invaluable information for enhancing training system design.