Predictors of survival in oesophageal cancer patients in a high-risk area in Northern Iran: the role of health services utilisation.

Abstract

We aimed to determine predictors of survival in oesophageal cancer (EC) patients in a high-risk area. This study was conducted on EC patients diagnosed in 2007-2008 in Golestan province, Iran. Diagnostic (DU) and Therapeutic (TU) services utilisation indices were determined. DU and TU indices of 1 were considered as good utilisation. EC-specific survival rates were calculated. Multivariate Cox-regression model was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs). Two hundred and twenty-three EC subjects were enrolled. The median survival time was 10.47months and the 5-year survival rate was 11%. Cox-regression analysis suggested that stage of tumour (AHRregional =3.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.34-6.00; AHRmetastasis =12.21, 95% CI: 7.42-20.08) and TU (AHR=1.78, 95% CI: 1.25-2.52) were the strongest variables related to EC survival. The median survival time in patients with good and poor TU were 14.37 and 8.53months respectively (p<.01). There was no significant relationship between DU and EC survival. We found relatively low survival rates in our EC patients when compared with developed countries. Our results also suggested an increasing trend for EC survival rate during recent years. Good TU could predict higher survival rates. Patients' access to therapeutic services may be considered as an important indicator in decision-making for controlling EC.