Predictors of surgical intervention for antenatally detected ureteropelvic junction obstruction (UPJO): A prospective multivariate analysis.

Abstract

We aimed to identify clinical and radiological predictors of the need for surgical intervention in infants with antenatally detected UPJO. We prospectively followed infants born with antenatally diagnosed ureteropelvic junction obstruction (UPJO) presented at our outpatient clinics for evidence of obstructive injury with a standard protocol with ultrasonography and renal scintigraphy. Indications for surgery included progression of hydronephrosis on serial examinations, initial differential renal function (DFR) ⩽35% or >5% loss in sequential studies, and febrile urinary tract infection (UTI). Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to define the predictors for surgical intervention, while the appropriate cut-off value of the initial Anteroposterior diameter (APD) was determined using the receiver operator curve analysis. Univariate analysis revealed a significant association between surgery, the initial APD, cortical thickness, Society for Fetal Urology grade, UTD risk group, initial DRF, and febrile UTI (p-value < 0.05). No significant association between surgery and sex or side of the affected kidney (p-value 0.91 and 0.38, respectively). On multivariate analysis, the initial APD, initial DRF, obstructed renographic curve, and febrile UTI (p-value < 0.05) were the only independent predictors for surgical intervention. An initial APD of 23 mm can predict surgical requirement, with a specificity of 95% and sensitivity of 70%. For antenatally diagnosed UPJO, the APD value (at the age of 1 week), DFR value (at the age of 6-8 weeks), and febrile UTI during follow-up are significant and independent predictors of the need for surgical intervention. APD, when used with a cut-off value of 23 mm, is associated with high specificity and sensitivity for predicting surgical need.