Predictors of Superior Recovery Kinetics in Adult Cervical Deformity Correction: An Analysis Using a Novel Area Under the Curve Methodology.

Abstract

Retrospective review of a prospective database. The aim of this study was to identify demographic, surgical, and radiographic factors that predict superior recovery kinetics following cervical deformity (CD) corrective surgery. Analyses of CD corrective surgery use area under the curve (AUC) to assess health-related quality of life (HRQL) metrics throughout recovery. Outcome measures were baseline (BL) to 1-year (1Y) health-related quality of life (HRQL) (Neck Disability Index [NDI]). CD criteria were C2-7 Cobb angle >10°, coronal Cobb angle >10°, C2-C7 sagittal vertical axis (cSVA) >4 cm, TS-CL >10°, or chin-brow vertical angle >25°. AUC normalization divided BL and postoperative outcomes by BL. Normalized scores (y axis) were plotted against follow-up (x axis). AUC was calculated and divided by cumulative follow-up length to determine overall, time-adjusted recovery (Integrated Health State [IHS]). IHS NDI was stratified by quartile, uppermost 25% being "Superior" Recovery Kinetics (SRK) versus "Normal" Recovery Kinetics (NRK). BL demographic, clinical, and surgical information predicted SRK using generalized linear modeling. Ninety-eight patients included (62 ± 10 years, 28 ± 6 kg/m2, 65% females, Charlson Comorbidity Index: 0.95), 6% smokers, 31% smoking history. Surgical approach was: combined (33%), posterior (49%), anterior (18%). Posterior levels fused: 8.7, anterior: 3.6, estimated blood loss: 915.9ccs, operative time: 495 minutes. Ames BL classification: cSVA (53.2% minor deformity, 46.8% moderate), TS-CL (9.8% minor, 4.3% moderate, 85.9% marked), horizontal gaze (27.4% minor, 46.6% moderate, 26% marked). Relative to BL NDI (Mean: 47), normalized NDI decreased at 3 months (0.9 ± 0.5, P = 0.260) and 1Y (0.78 ± 0.41, P < 0.001). NDI IHS correlated with age (P = 0.011), sex (P = 0.042), anterior approach (P = 0.042), posterior approach (P = 0.042). Greater BL pelvic tilt (PT) (SRK: 25.6°, NRK: 17°, P = 0.002), pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis (PI-LL) (SRK: 8.4°, NRK: -2.8°, P = 0.009), and anterior approach (SRK: 34.8%, NRK: 13.3%; P = 0.020) correlated with SRK. 69.4% met MCID for NDI (<Δ-15) and 63.3% met substantial clinical benefit for NDI (<Δ-10); 100% of SRK met both MCID and substantial clinical benefit. The predictive model for SRK included (AUC = 88.1%): BL visual analog scale (VAS) EuroQol five-dimensional descriptive system (EQ5D) (odds rario [OR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92-0.99), BL swallow sleep score (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), BL PT (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.22), BL modified Japanese Orthopedic Association scale (mJOA) (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.07-2.16), BL T4-T12, BL T10-L2, BL T12-S1, and BL L1-S1. Superior recovery kinetics following CD surgery was predicted with high accuracy using BL patient-reported (VAS EQ5D, swallow sleep, mJOA) and radiographic factors (PT, TK, T10-L2, T12-S1, L1-S1). Awareness of these factors can improve decision-making and reduce postoperative neck disability.Level of Evidence: 3.