Predictors of recurrent cellulitis in five years. Clinical risk factors and the role of PTX3 and CRP

Abstract

To identify risk factors for recurrence of cellulitis, and to assess the predictive value of pentraxin 3 (PTX3) and C-reactive protein (CRP) measured at baseline. A follow up study of 90 hospitalised patients with acute non-necrotising cellulitis was conducted. Clinical risk factors were assessed and PTX3 and CRP values were measured at baseline. Patients were contacted by phone at a median of 4.6 years after the baseline episode and the medical records were reviewed. Overall, 41% of the patients had a recurrence in the follow up. Of the patients with a history of a previous cellulitis in the baseline study 57% had a recurrence in five year follow up as compared to 26% of those without previous episodes (p=0.003). In multivariate analysis, only the history of previous cellulitis was identified as an independent predicting factor for recurrence. The levels of pentraxin 3 (PTX3) or C-reactive protein (CRP) in the acute phase did not predict recurrence. Risk of recurrence is considerably higher after a recurrent episode than after the first episode. Clinical risk factors predisposing to the first cellulitis episode plausibly predispose also to recurrences.