Predictors of poor outcome for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Abstract

4100 Background: The use of TACE in select patients with BCLC stage B HCC has been shown to improve survival. Despite this, it remains unclear which patients will benefit from repeated TACE versus switching to systemic therapy upon disease progression. The purpose of this study is to identify prognostic factors that predict poor outcomes in patients who receive TACE. Methods: In this single-institutional retrospective analysis, patients with unresectable HCC were treated with TACE between 2007-2016. Relevant factors such as staging by BCLC stage B, Child-Pugh score, vascular invasion (VI), tumor thrombus (TT), AFP levels, and number of TACE treatments within six months from the initiation of TACE were analyzed using either Pearson’s chi-square test or the student's t-test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. Results: Patients (n = 176) underwent TACE; 45% had stage I-II disease, 42% were BCLC stage B prior to TACE, 71% were Child-Pugh A, 21% had extrahepatic spread, 34.7% had VI, and 26% had TT. The median number of TACE treatments was 2 (range, 1- 6). The median overall survival (mOS) was 43 months (m) (95% CI 31.3-54.7) and mOS from start of TACE was 34m (95% CI 26.2-41.8). Elevated AFP (>400) correlated with decreased mOS (25m vs. 35m, p=0.041). Similarly, the presence of TT correlated with poor outcomes (25m vs. 37m, p=0.015). The mOS was also negatively impacted by having 3 or more TACE treatments within a 6 m period (25m vs. 38m, p = 0.09). AFP >400, TT, and interval between TACE were all independent factors in this multivariate analysis, resulting in a shorter mOS of approx. 2 years compared to 3 years in patients without these negative prognostic factors. There was a strong association with both elevated AFP and TT (Chi square p=0.009). Conclusions: Elevated AFP (>400), the presence of TT, and a need for 3 or more TACE treatments within 6 months appear to be independent predictors for shorter mOS in patients receiving TACE. Patients with these poor prognostic factors tend to have more aggressive HCC, and earlier initiation of systemic therapy might provide benefit to these patients. A larger study is needed for confirmation of these findings.