Abstract
BackgroundObesity is a chronic complex disease with an increasing prevalence around the world. Prospective studies in adult cohorts are needed to provide information about predictors of new-onset overweight/obesity on population-based levels. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the risk of an adult individual become overweight/obese after 13 years of follow-up.MethodsSecond phase of an observational population-based prospective cohort study in a small town in the Midwest region of Brazil. A representative sample of the adult population (≥18 years) was assessed in 2002 (phase 1). Anthropometric, sociodemographic, dietary intake and lifestyle data were collected. After 13 years of follow-up (2015), the same variables were re-evaluated (phase 2). New-onset overweight/obesity was the outcome variable.ResultsA total of 685 subjects were included with a mean age in phase 1 of 42.7 ± 13.8 years and 56.1 ± 13.8 years in phase 2, the mean follow-up time was 13.2 years and female sex counted for 66.3% of the sample. Total weight gain was 5.9 ± 10.2 Kg, body mass index increased 2.6 ± 3.8 Kg/m2 and waist circumference (WC) values increased 8.0 ± 10.5 cm. The prevalence of overweight/obesity went from 49.1% in phase 1 to 69.8% in phase 2 (p < 0.001). The factors associated with a decreased risk of new-onset overweight/obesity were ages between 50 and 64 (RR 0.40; CI 0.24–0.67 – p = 0.001) and ≥65 years (RR 0.15; CI 0.06–0.35 - p < 0.001), being part of the second quartile of fat consumption (RR 0.59; CI 0.35–0.97 – p = 0.041), no alcohol consumption (RR 0.59; CI 0.37–0.93 – p = 0.024) and smoking (RR 0.58; CI 0.39–0.86 – p = 0,007) in phase 1.ConclusionsWe identified in thirteen years of follow-up that older ages, a moderate fat consumption compared to low consumption, no alcohol consumption and smoking habit were related to a decreased risk of new-onset overweight/obesity. Obesity prevention actions must focus on subjects at younger ages and include policies to reduce alcohol consumption.
Highlights
Obesity is a chronic complex disease with an increasing prevalence around the world
Obesity and overweight are associated with many comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension and several of the commonest forms of cancer [4]
The initial sample size for phase 1, was calculated considering the total city population in 2002, the prevalence of hypertension of 25%, the 95% confidence interval and an estimation error of 10%, which resulted in n = 1030
Summary
Obesity is a chronic complex disease with an increasing prevalence around the world. Prospective studies in adult cohorts are needed to provide information about predictors of new-onset overweight/obesity on population-based levels. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the risk of an adult individual become overweight/obese after 13 years of follow-up. Obesity is a chronic complex disease characterized by excessive adipose tissue [1]. The rising prevalence of overweight and obesity in several countries has been described as a global pandemic [2]. In 2014, 52.5% of the Brazilian population was overweight and 17.9% of those were obese [3]. Obesity and overweight are associated with many comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension and several of the commonest forms of cancer [4]. Increased weight gains in adult life are related to metabolic syndrome [5], increased risk of stroke [6] and total mortality [7], in late stages of life
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