Predictors of non-calcified plaque presence and future adverse cardiovascular events in symptomatic rural Appalachian patients with a zero coronary artery calcium score

Abstract

BackgroundCoronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is a proven predictor for future adverse cardiovascular events (CVE) in asymptomatic individuals. Data is emerging regarding the usefulness of non-calcified plaque (NCP) assessment on cardiac computed tomography (CCT) angiography in symptomatic patients with a zero CAC score for further risk assessment. MethodsA retrospective review from January 2019 to January 2022 of 696 symptomatic patients with no known CAD and a zero CAC score identified 181 patients with NCP and 515 patients without NCP by a visual assessment on CCT angiography. The primary endpoint was to identify predictors for NCP presence and adverse CVEs (death, myocardial infarction, or cerebrovascular accident) within two years. ResultsBased on logistic regression, age (OR 1.039, 95% CI [1.020–1.058], p ​< ​0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR 2.192, 95% CI [1.307–3.676], p ​< ​0.003), tobacco use (OR 1.748, 95% CI [1.157–2.643], p ​< ​0.008), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (OR 1.009, 95% CI [1.003–1.015], p ​< ​0.002), and hypertension (OR 1.613, 95% CI [1.024–2.540], p ​< ​0.039) were found to be predictors of NCP presence. NCP patients had a higher pretest probability for CAD using the Morise risk score (p ​< ​0.001∗), with NCP detection increasing as pretest probability increased from low to high (OR 55.79, 95% CI [24.26–128.26], p ​< ​0.001∗). 457 patients (66%) reached a full two-year period after CCT angiography completion, with NCP patients noted to have shorter follow-up times and higher rates of elective coronary angiography, intervention, and CVEs. The presence of NCP (aOR 2.178, 95% CI [1.025–4.627], p ​< ​0.043) was identified as an independent predictor for future adverse CVEs when adjusted for diabetes mellitus, age, and hypertension. ConclusionNCP was identified at high rates (26%) in our symptomatic Appalachian population with no known CAD and a zero CAC score. NCP was identified as an independent predictor of future adverse CVEs within two years.