Predictors of marathon performance in female runners

Abstract

Running velocity at VO2max (vVO2max) is predictive of distance running performance in females for distances of 1500 to 10,000m, but has yet to be investigated in prolonged events such as the marathon. This study investigated the relationship between marathon run time, VO2max, vVO2max, and running economy (RE) in 19 recreational female runners (xage = 33.56 ± 7.53 yrs; xwt = 58.46 ± 6.94 kg; xht = 165.63 ± 6.30 cm) who were training for a local marathon. Subjects completed a test for VO2max (x = 52.86 ± 6.12 ml'min‐kg−1) and a second treadmill test for RE at 4 different speeds. Submaximal speeds were individualized based on self reported training pace. Mean marathon run time was 241.5 ± 33.3 minutes. VO2max was the best performance predictor (r = ‐0.74, p ≤ 0.01) and explained 56% of the variance of run time. The relationship between vVO2max and run time was also significant, but the relationship was not as strong as for VO2max (r = ‐0.64, p ≤ 0.01). The relationship between performance time and weekly training mileage was also significant (r = ‐0.63, p ≤ 0.01). Regression of V02max, vV02max, and weekly training mileage revealed a multiple R of .87 (R2 = 0.75, p ≤ 0.01). Even though it was still a significant contributor, this study failed to support vVO2max as the best predictor of performance in recreational female runners. However, these data reinforce the notion that physiological variables such as VO2max (or vVO2max) combined with external factors (weekly training) are important factors in marathon performance.