Predictors of mandatory 3rd grade retention from high-stakes test performance for low-income, ethnically diverse children

Abstract

As a result of No Child Left Behind, Florida began mandatory 3rd grade retention for children who fail the high-stakes reading Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test [FCAT]. We examined enforcement practices of this policy. We examined a large (N = 27,980), ethnically diverse, urban sample. Of those who took the FCAT reading test in 3rd grade, 15% failed, and of those who failed, only 53% actually repeated 3rd grade. Black and Latino students, those receiving free/reduced lunch, those who were not yet English proficient, and those in special education were more likely to fail the test. The same variables predicted which students were retained after having failed the FCAT, with the exception of ethnicity. Children who had a lower GPA in 3rd grade had greater odds of being held back after failing the FCAT, even while controlling for relevant demographic variables. We discuss implications for the potential marginalization of vulnerable groups from high-stakes retention policies.