Predictors of long-term lung function decline in adult-onset asthma

Abstract

Background: Predictors of long-term lung function decline in adult-onset asthma are not known. Aims: To evaluate the determinants for accelerated loss of lung function in a 12-year follow-up as a part of Seinajoki Adult-onset Asthma Study (SAAS). Methods: 257 adults were diagnosed with new-onset asthma during 1999-2002. After 12 years patients (n=203) were re-evaluated. Spirometry measurement points were:1.) baseline (i.e. time of diagnosis), 2.) the maximum lung function (Max 0-2.5 ) during the first 2.5 years after diagnosis (i.e. after start of therapy) and 3.) after 12 years of follow-up. The predictors of annual FEV 1 decline between Max 0-2.5 and follow-up were assessed by multiple linear regression analysis. Results: The predictors of lung function decline are presented in Table1. Conclusion: Smoked pack-years >10, increased age, weight gain and ongoing inflammation predict accelerated loss of lung function in adult-onset asthma. Interestingly, good initial response to anti-inflammatory therapy may indicate also accelerated decline in FEV 1 later on.