Predictors of Long-Term Survival in Patients Treated for Oligometastases

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to report the long-term outcomes of patients with oligometastases treated with curative intent radiotherapy in the context of the recently developed ESTRO EORTC classification schema. This retrospective, single institution study consists of consecutive adult patients with oligometastases from solid tumor malignancy referred to a single high volume radiation oncologist. Oligometastases were defined as 5 or fewer extracranial or intracranial metastatic lesions where all sites of active disease are amenable to treatment. Patients with a history of distant metastases requiring treatment of the primary tumor ± regional lymph nodes were included. Radical local therapies utilized included stereotactic radiotherapy (53% of patients, median dose 27 Gy in 3 fractions), intensity modulated radiotherapy (64% of patients; median dose 50 Gy in 15 fractions), surgery and/or ablation. Overall survival and progression-free survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of survival were assessed using log-rank test for categorical variables and Cox regression for continuous variables for univariable analysis and Cox multivariable analyses. The study population consists of 130 patients with 207 treated distant metastases referred to radiation oncology between 1/2014 and 12/2021. Key patient characteristics include median age 71, median pre-radiation albumin 3.7 g/dl, 72% ECOG 0-1 performance status, 35% lung primary, 12% prostate primary, median of 1 distant metastasis treated, 31% bone metastases, 30% brain metastases, 47% required treatment to primary tumor ± regional lymph nodes and 71% received systemic therapy after radiation. The most frequent ESTRO EORTC oligometastatic groups were synchronous oligometastases (40%) and metachronous oligorecurrence (29%). At a median follow-up of 28.8 months (IQR 16.0 to 56.3 months), the median overall survival is 37.9 months with a 4-year overall survival of 41.1%. The median progression-free survival was 12.3 months with a 4-year progression-free survival of 22.6%. On multivariable analysis, the strongest predictors of overall survival are age (HR 1.05 [1.02-1.08]; CI: 95%; p<0.001), ECOG performance status (HR 1.69 [1.15-2.47]; CI: 95%; p = 0.007), primary prostate, breast or kidney tumor (HR 2.79 [1.29-6.03]; CI: 95%; p = 0.009) and pre-radiation serum albumin (HR 0.55 [0.35-0.87]; CI: 95%; p = 0.01). The strongest predictors of progression free survival on multivariable analysis are albumin (HR 0.59 [0.39-0.88]; CI: 95%; p = 0.009) and primary prostate, breast or kidney tumor (HR 1.90 [1.06-3.38]; CI: 95%; p = 0.03). Long-term overall survival is not uncommon after radical treatment for oligometastases. The ESTRO EORTC classification provides an enriched nomenclature for oligometastases but is not independently predictive of survival.