Predictors of goal difference and match outcome in Polish handball PGNiG Superleague in the season before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic - regression analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT The aim of the study was to determine which technical and tactical actions are predictors of the goal difference and the outcome of the handball match in the seasons before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study material is official statistics of the Polish PGNiG Superleague in 493 matches. Multivariate and logistic regression analysis was used to demonstrate predictive factors. The predictors of goal difference are the number and effectiveness of throws from 6, 7, and 9 metres, the number of fouls, fast breaks, and goalkeeper effectiveness. The biggest contributors are the effectiveness of the goalkeeper’s defence, the number of throws from the 6th metre, and the effectiveness of throws from 6th and 9th metres. The constant predictors of winning in all seasons are the number of throws from the 6th metre, the efficiency of throws from the 6th and 9th metres, and the efficiency of goalkeepers saves. The strongest predictor of winning in the pre-and post-pandemic seasons is playing matches at home. In the pandemic season, no such relationship was shown. In sports training, offensive and defensive actions involving the demonstrated predictors should be improved to increase their level and decrease it in opponents.