Abstract
SummaryBackgroundSuicidal thoughts and non-suicidal self-harm are common in adolescents and are strongly associated with suicide attempts. We aimed to identify predictors of future suicide attempts in these high-risk groups.MethodsParticipants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a population-based birth cohort study in the UK. The sample included 456 adolescents who reported suicidal thoughts and 569 who reported non-suicidal self-harm at 16 years of age. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore associations between a wide range of prospectively recorded risk factors and future suicide attempts, assessed at the age of 21 years.Findings38 (12%) of 310 participants with suicidal thoughts and 46 (12%) of 380 participants who had engaged in non-suicidal self-harm reported having attempted suicide for the first time by the follow-up at 21 years of age. Among participants with suicidal thoughts, the strongest predictors of transition to attempts were non-suicidal self-harm (odds ratio [OR] 2·78, 95% CI 1·35–5·74; p=0·0059), cannabis use (2·61, 1·11–6·14; p=0·029), other illicit drug use (2·47, 1·02–5·96; p=0·045), exposure to self-harm (family 2·03, 0·93–4·44, p=0·076; friend 1·85, 0·93–3·69, p=0·081), and higher levels of the personality type intellect/openness (1·62, 1·06–2·46; p=0·025). Among participants with non-suicidal self-harm at baseline, the strongest predictors were cannabis use (OR 2·14, 95% CI 1·04–4·41; p=0·038), other illicit drug use (2·17, 1·10–4·27; p=0·025), sleep problems (waking in the night 1·91, 0·95–3·84, p=0·069; insufficient sleep 1·97, 1·02–3·81, p=0·043), and lower levels of the personality type extraversion (0·71, 0·49–1·03; p=0·068).InterpretationMost adolescents who think about suicide or engage in non-suicidal self-harm will not make an attempt on their life. Many commonly cited risk factors were not associated with transition to suicide attempt among these high-risk groups. Our findings suggest that asking about substance use, non-suicidal self-harm, sleep, personality traits, and exposure to self-harm could inform risk assessments, and might help clinicians to identify which adolescents are at greatest risk of attempting suicide in the future.FundingAmerican Foundation for Suicide Prevention, National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University Hospitals Bristol National Health Service Foundation Trust, and the University of Bristol.
Highlights
Suicidal behaviour is a major public health concern in adolescents
38 (12%) of 310 participants with suicidal thoughts and 46 (12%) of 380 participants who had engaged in non-suicidal self-harm reported having attempted suicide for the first time by the follow-up at 21 years of age
Our findings suggest that asking about substance use, non-suicidal self-harm, sleep, personality traits, and exposure to self-harm could inform risk assessments, and might help clinicians to identify which adolescents are at greatest risk of attempting suicide in the future
Summary
Suicidal behaviour is a major public health concern in adolescents. suicidal thoughts and non-suicidal self-harm are strong predictors of suicide attempts, little is known about the factors that predict attempts in these high-risk groups. A third of adolescents who have suicidal thoughts are estimated to go on to make a suicide attempt.[1] Theoretical models of suicide, including the interpersonal theory,[2] the integrated motivational–volitional model,[3] and the three-step theory,[4] are consistent with an ideationto-action framework. This framework proposes that the factors involved in the development of suicidal thoughts are distinct from those involved in the transition from thoughts to attempts. Like most previous studies exploring this issue,[1,10,11,12,13,14] the analyses were crosssectional, and the extent to which these factors would predict future suicide attempts is currently unknown
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