Predictors of fuel poverty and the equity of local fuel poverty support: secondary analysis of data from Bradford, England.

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Addressing fuel poverty is a critical public health issue given its recent rise in prevalence across Europe. Although previous research identifies national risk markers of fuel poverty, evidence is lacking on whether these are consistent across local geographies, and the equity of local interventions. In the UK's current economic climate, it is more crucial than ever that services benefit households in greatest need. This study aimed to determine significant predictors of fuel poverty among households in Bradford, England, comparing them to national-level predictors, and evaluate if households possessing significant fuel poverty predictors were equitably referred to a local fuel poverty service (Warm Homes Healthy People, WHHP). A multivariate logistic regression model determined significant fuel poverty predictors in Bradford using household-level data from the Energy Saving Trust and the Low Income High Costs fuel poverty definition. Statistical testing highlighted significant differences in predictors of fuel poverty between households referred to WHHP and all Bradford households. Significant (p < .05) predictors of fuel poverty included: living in an area with lower average household incomes and higher proportion of ethnic minority individuals, and living in a property with a lower energy efficiency rating. Households living in a detached or older property, and homeowners were more likely to be fuel poor. Differences in the direction of the relationship with fuel poverty were identified between some national and local predictors. Most predictors were significantly (p < .05) overrepresented among WHHP households, suggesting equitable service reach. Ethnic minorities, younger people, and multiperson households were underrepresented. Local fuel poverty predictors were similar to many national-level predictors, but identified differences in the direction of the relationship between some national and local predictors reaffirm the value of locally focused research. WHHP successfully targeted households possessing key predictors, but should ensure that ethnic minorities, younger people, and multiperson households are equitably referred.