Predictors of Frailty Transitions in Mexican Older Adults.

Abstract

Frailty is a dynamic state in older adults. Current evidence, mostly in high-income countries, found that improving frailty is more likely in mild states (prefrailty). We aimed to determine the probability of frailty transitions and their predictors. Participants were adults aged 50 years or over from the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health in Mexico during 4 waves (2009, 2014, 2017, and 2021). We defined frailty with the frailty phenotype and we used multinomial logistic models to estimate the probabilities of frailty transitions and determine their predictors. For the 3 analyzed periods (2009-2014, 2014-2017, and 2017-2021), transition probabilities from frail to robust were higher for the younger age group (50-59 years) at 0.20, 0.26, and 0.20, and lower for the older age group (≥80 years), 0.03, 0.08 and 0.04. Transitioning from prefrail to robust had probabilities of 0.38, 0.37, and 0.35, for the younger age group, and 0.09, 0.18, and 0.10, for the older age group. The probabilities of transitioning to frail and to death were lower for the younger age group and for the robust at baseline; but higher for the older age group and for the frail at baseline. We identified age, disability, and diabetes as the most significant predictors of frailty transitions. These findings show that frailty has a dynamic nature and that a significant proportion of prefrail and frail individuals can recover to a robust or prefrail state. They also emphasize that prefrailty should be the focus of interventions.