Predictors of fatal officer-involved shootings from eight municipal police agencies in the USA (2015–22)

Abstract

Abstract In the USA, fatal officer-involved shootings (OIS) persist as a topic of nationwide concern. Still, due to a lack of reliable, public OIS data, research examining the predictors of these incidents is limited. The current project utilizes OIS data submitted to the Police Data Initiative (PDI) from eight large, municipal police agencies in the USA to assess trends and characteristics of OIS (fatal and nonfatal) occurring between 2015 and 2022. Using a logistic regression model, this analysis explores officer characteristics, civilian characteristics, and situational characteristics as predictors of the lethality of OIS incidents within these eight US jurisdictions. Results suggest three characteristics were significant predictors of fatal OIS, including the number of officers involved in the OIS, the officer’s years of experience, and the civilian’s age. Based on these findings, evidence-based strategies for fatal OIS prevention, critical incident response, and OIS data availability are discussed and future directions for research are explored.