Predictors of Early Hospice or Death in Patients With Inoperable Lung Cancer Treated With Curative Intent

Abstract

IntroductionTreatment for inoperable stage II to III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) involves chemo-radiotherapy (CRT). However, some patients transition to hospice or die early during their treatment course. We present a model to prognosticate early poor outcomes in NSCLC patients treated with curative-intent CRT. Methods and MaterialsAcross a statewide consortium, data was prospectively collected on stage II to III NSCLC patients who received CRT between 2012 and 2019. Early poor outcomes included hospice enrollment or death within 3 months of completing CRT. Logistic regression models were used to assess predictors in prognostic models. LASSO regression with multiple imputation were used to build a final multivariate model, accounting for missing covariates. ResultsOf the 2267 included patients, 128 experienced early poor outcomes. Mean age was 71 years and 59% received concurrent chemotherapy. The best predictive model, created parsimoniously from statistically significant univariate predictors, included age, ECOG, planning target volume (PTV), mean heart dose, pretreatment lack of energy, and cough. The estimated area under the ROC curve for this multivariable model was 0.71, with a negative predictive value of 95%, specificity of 97%, positive predictive value of 23%, and sensitivity of 16% at a predicted risk threshold of 20%. ConclusionsThis multivariate model identified a combination of clinical variables and patient reported factors that may identify individuals with inoperable NSCLC undergoing curative intent chemo-radiotherapy who are at higher risk for early poor outcomes.