Predictors of change in cardiovascular disease risk and events following gastric bypass: a 7-year prospective multicenter study.

Abstract

Change in short-term (i.e., 10-year) and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) has significant heterogeneity. To identify predictors of change in CVD risk and cardiovascular events following RYGB. Between 2006-2009, 1625 adults without a history of CVD enrolled in a prospective cohort study and underwent RYGB at 1 of 10 U.S. hospitals. Participants were followed annually for a maximum of 7 years. Associations between presurgery characteristics (anthropometric, sociodemographic, physical and mental health, alcohol/drug use, eating behaviors) and 1) pre to postsurgery change in 10 year and lifetime atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk scores, respectively, and 2) having a CVD event (nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, angina, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, or CVD-attributed death) as repeated measures (yr 1-7) were evaluated. Observational cohort study at ten hospitals throughout the United States. Presurgery factors independently associated with decreases in both 10-year and lifetime risk scores 1-7 years post-RYGB were higher CVD risk score, female sex, higher household income, and normal kidney function. Additionally, Black race and having diabetes were independently associated with decreases in 10-year risk, while not having diabetes and a higher (better) composite mental health score were independently related to decreases in lifetime risk. A lower (worse) presurgery composite physical health score was associated with a higher CVD event risk (RR = 1.68, per 10 points). This study identified multiple presurgery factors that characterize patients who may have more cardiovascular benefit from RYGB, and patients who might require additional support to improve their cardiovascular health.