Abstract

Inflammation, oxidative stress, myocardial injury biomarkers and clinical parameters (longer AF duration, left atrial enlargement, the metabolic syndrome) are factors commonly related to AF recurrence. This study aims to assess the predictive value of laboratory and clinical parameters responsible for early recurrence of atrial fibrillation (ERAF) following cryoballoon ablation (CBA) using statistical assessment and machine learning algorithms. This study group comprised 118 consecutive patients (mean age, 62.5 ± 7.8 years; women 36%) with paroxysmal (54.1%) and persistent (45.9%) AF who underwent their first pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) performed by CBA (Arctic Front Advance 2nd generation 28 mm). The biomarker concentrations were measured at baseline and after CBA in a 24-h follow-up. ERAF was defined as at least a 30-s episode of arrhythmia registered by a 24 h-Holter monitor within the 3 months following the procedure. 56 clinical, laboratory and procedural variables were collected from each patient. We used two classification algorithms: support vector machines, gradient boosted tree. The synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) was used to provide a balanced training data set. Within a period of 3 months 21 patients (17.8%) experienced ERAF. The statistical analysis indicated that the lowered levels of post-ablation TnT (p = 0.043) and CK-MB (p = 0.010) with the TnT elevation (p = 0.044) were the predictors of ERAF following CBA. In addition, diabetes and statin treatment were significantly associated with ERAF after CBA (p < 0.05). The machine learning algorithms confirmed the results obtained in the univariate analysis.

Highlights

  • Cryoballoon ablation (CBA) of pulmonary veins, along with radiofrequency ablation (RFCA), is a widely acknowledged method of atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment

  • We decided to focus on the clinical significance of early recurrence of atrial fibrillation (ERAF) given that many published studies consider it one of the most frequent factors contributing to the failure of the procedure in the long run

  • The study consisted of 118 consecutive patients with paroxysmal and permanent AF who were referred to the department of cardiology in Nowa Sól, Poland from May 2016 till September 2017 to undergo their first pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) performed through CBA (Arctic Front Advance 2nd generation 28 mm) in accordance with international guidelines

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Summary

Introduction

Cryoballoon ablation (CBA) of pulmonary veins, along with radiofrequency ablation (RFCA), is a widely acknowledged method of atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment. Pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) is a crucial element of the AF ablation procedure [1]. It has been estimated that nearly half of patients experience early arrhythmia recurrence in a 3-month followup [2,3,4]. Such conclusions have been drawn in a substudy of a multicenter randomized STOP AF trial where above half (51.5%) of the patients who had undergone CBA suffered from ERAF after the index-PVI procedure. 55.6% of patients with ERAF experienced LRAF (p < 0.001)

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