Predictors of 1-month and 3-months Hospital Readmissions in Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Prospective Study in a Large Asian Cohort

Abstract

Introduction and aimConsidered as a healthcare quality indicator, hospital readmissions in decompensated cirrhosis predispose the patients and the society to physical, social and economic distresses. Few studies involving North American cohorts have identified different predictors. The aim of this study was to determine and validate the predictors of 1-month and 3-months readmission in an Asian cohort. Material and methods.We prospectively studied 281 hospitalised patients with decompensated cirrhosis at a large tertiary care public hospital in India between August 2014 and August 2016 and followed them for 3 months. Data regarding demographic, laboratory and disease related risk factors were compiled. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine predictors of readmission at 1-month and 3-months and receiver operating curves (ROC) for significant predictors to obtain the best cut-offs. Results1-month and 3-months readmission rates in our study were 27.8% and 42.3%, respectively. Model for End stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at discharge (OR:1.24, p < 0.001) and serum sodium (OR:0.94, p-0.039) independently predicted 1-month and MELD score (OR:1.11, p-0.003), serum sodium (OR:0.94, p-0.027) and male gender (OR:2.19, p-0.008) independently predicted 3-months readmissions. Neither aetiology nor complications of cirrhosis emerged as risk factors. MELD score >14 at discharge and serum sodium < 133 mEq/L best predicted readmissions; MELD score being a better predictor than serum sodium (p - 0.0001). ConclusionsHigh rates of early and late readmissions were found in our study. Further, this study validated readmission predictors in Asian patients. Structured interventions targeting this risk factors may diminish readmissions in decompensated cirrhosis.