Predictors for CD4 cell count and hemoglobin level with survival time to default for HIV positive adults under ART treatment at University of Gondar Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia

Abstract

BackgroundHIV/AIDS is the most known powerful risk factor for morbidity and mortality in the world. The greatest biological markers in HIV patients are CD4 cell count and hemoglobin level, as they are independent predictors of survival of HIV patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the common socio-demographic, clinical, and behavioral Predictor’s affecting the CD4 cell count, and hemoglobin level with survival time to default from ART treatment among HIV positive adults under ART treatment at university of Gondar comprehensive and specialized hospital, North-west Ethiopia.MethodThis study was conducted at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital by using a retrospective cohort follow up study design. The source of data in this study was secondary data obtained from patients chart. Bayesian joint models were employed to get wide-ranging information about HIV/AIDS progression.ResultFrom a total of 403 HIV positive adults, about 44.2% were defaulted from therapy and the rest were actively followed ART treatment. The estimate of the association parameter for the current true value of CD4 cell count (α1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\alpha }_{1}$$\\end{document}), and hemoglobin level (α2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\alpha }_{2}$$\\end{document}), trend of CD4 cell count (α2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\alpha }_{2}$$\\end{document}) and hemoglobin level (b2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${b}_{2}$$\\end{document}) is positive. Positive values indicating that the higher CD4 cell count and hemoglobin level is related with the higher time of defaulting from ART. Predictor’s hematocrit, weight, platelet cell count, lymphocyte count, sex, adherence, and WHO clinical stage were joint determinate risk factors affecting CD4 cell count, hemoglobin level and time to default at 5% level of significance.ConclusionCurrent study results revealed that hematocrit, weight, BMI, platelet cell count, lymphocyte count, sex (female), and good treatment adherence were significantly associated with higher CD4 cell count, hemoglobin level and time to default while having advanced WHO clinical stage-IV had significantly decreased CD4 cell, hemoglobin level, and time to default from treatment. Patients with HIV should be given special attention based on these important factors to improve their health and prolong their lives.