Predictors and outcomes for late recurrence of renal cell carcinoma.

Abstract

348 Background: While the initial natural history after surgical resection for localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has been well-characterized, recurrence patterns for patients who experience late recurrence of disease continue to be defined. Here, we evaluated the clinical characteristics and survival of patients who experienced disease recurrence > 5 years following nephrectomy. Methods: We identified 1,454 patients who were treated with radical nephrectomy (RN) or nephron-sparing surgery (NSS) for unilateral, sporadic pT1-4NxM0 RCC between 1970-2000 and who had remained free of disease for 5 years after surgery. Late (> 5 years) recurrence was then recorded and was classified as renal (ipsilateral/contralateral kidney) recurrence and distant (all other sites) recurrence. The incidence of late recurrence was estimated using the Kaplan Meier method, and clinicopathological variables subsequent disease relapse were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Results: Median follow-up after nephrectomy in the cohort here was 13.9 years (range 5.1-38.9). In total, 63 patients experience a late recurrence in the ipsilateral/contralateral kidney, at a median of 9.3 years (range 5.1-25.3) after surgery. 172 (11.8%) patients developed late distant metastases, at a median of 9.6 years (range: 5.1-26.6). Estimated recurrence-free survival at 10 and 15 years following nephrectomy was 97.3% and 95.2% for renal recurrence and 93.1% and 85.9% for distant recurrence, respectively. Increased tumor size (HR 1.1; p<0.001) was associated with a higher rate of late renal recurrence, while increased tumor size (HR 1.1; p=0.018), clear cell or collecting duct histology (HR 3.7; p<0.001), and tumor stage pT1b (HR 2.8; p<0.001), pT2a (HR 4.5; p<0.001), pT2b (HR 3.4; p=0.007), and pT3/4 (HR 5.1; p<0.001) were predictive of the development of late distant metastasis. Conclusions: Patients undergoing surgery for localized RCC remain at life-long risk of disease recurrence. Approximately 5% experience renal recurrence and 15% demonstrate distant relapse, during the ensuing 10 years. Continued investigation to identify potential site-specific predictors of late recurrence is necessary to guide postoperative surveillance regimens. No significant financial relationships to disclose.