Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate for potential predictors and etiologies of clinical relapse among patients with ulcerative colitis in deep remission. Patients displaying deep (endoscopic and histologic) remission have a decreased cumulative risk of relapse in ulcerative colitis of <10% per year, but predictors and etiologies of relapse in this population are poorly understood. We performed a retrospective cohort study utilizing electronic medical records at Tufts Medical Center to identify patients in deep remission, classified as having both endoscopic remission (Mayo Endoscopic Score of 0 or 1) and histologic remission (Simplified Geboes Score 0.2). We evaluated the cumulative risk of clinical relapse following attainment of deep remission and examined predictors and etiologies of relapse. Among 139 patients with ulcerative colitis in deep remission, the cumulative risk of relapse was <10% and <20% at 1 and 2 years. Patients with complete normalization of mucosa (Geboes=0) and normalization of C-reactive protein (<7.48mg/dL) at the time of remission were associated with a lower risk of relapse. Discontinuation of therapy was the most commonly identified etiology of relapse. Patients in deep remission have a 1-year risk of clinical relapse of <10%, with those demonstrating a non-normalized mucosa or elevated C-reactive protein predictive of persistent relapse risk. Discontinuation of therapy or minor histologic changes may drive relapse among those in deep remission.

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