Predictor of adverse pathology in patients who underwent deferred radical prostatectomy following active surveillance: Results from multi-institutional prospective observational cohort in the PRIAS-JAPAN.

Abstract

350 Background: Intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P) and invasive cribriform are key prognostic pathologies among early stage prostate cancer patients; however, predictors of adverse pathology, including these types, remain unknown. In men who opted for active surveillance (AS), we aimed to examine the association between adverse pathology and patient characteristics, utilizing radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens. Methods: We re-reviewed available RP specimens from 1035 men prospectively enrolled in the PRIAS-JAPAN cohort between January 2010 and September 2020. We defined adverse pathology on RP specimen as Gleason grade group of ≥3, pT-stage≥T3, pN positivity, or the presence of IDC-P or invasive cribriform. And, we examined the predictive factors associated with adverse pathology, using factors at AS enrollment and before RP. Results: Out of 162 men underwent RP, available 137 RP specimens were analyzed. The percentage of adverse pathology was 48.9% (67 patients), including 8.8% in IDC-P and 29.9 % in invasive cribriform. Men with adverse pathology had lower prostate specific antigen recurrence-free survival than those without them (log rank P = 0.0189). On multivariate logistic regression analyses, increasing age at AS enrollment and before RP were the predictive factors for adverse pathology (Odds ratio [OR], 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.19, P = 0.0178, OR, 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02-1.22, P=0.0126), not magnetic resonance imaging findings. Conclusions: Aging is significantly associated with adverse pathology including IDC-P or cribriform. The results suggest that relaxing scheduled examinations during AS depending on age is not practical. Clinical trial information: UMIN000048095 .