Predictive values of APACHE-O, APACHE-II , ranson and balthazar CT scoring system on prognosis of acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Objective To investigate the values of the APACHE O,APACHE-Ⅲ,Ranson and Balthazar CT(CTSI) scoring systems in predicting prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis.Methods Data were collected prospectively from 321 consecutive patients who were admitted into our hospital from 2005-01-01 to 2011-01-01 with acute pancreatitis (AP).The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of the APACHE-O,APACHE-Ⅱ,Ranson,Balthazar CT scoring systems at different cut-off levels were calculated.The receiver-operating curves (ROC) for the prediction of severe AP in the early period were calculated using the APACHE-O,APACHE-Ⅱ,Ranson and Balthazar CT scores in different cut-off levels on hospital admission.The area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive accuracy.Using ROC curves,the values in predicting systemic complications,local complications and morbidities were also compared.Results At a cut-off point of 7,the APACHE O had a sensitivity of 95.4％,a specificity of 76.6％ and an overall accuracy of 79.4％.The Youden's index and the AUC of the APACHE-O score were 0.720 and 0.736,respectively.At a cut-off point of 8,the APACHE-Ⅱ had a sensitivity of 90.4％,a specificity of 81.0％ and an overall accuracy of 842.6％.The Youden's index and the AUC of the APACHE-Ⅱ were 0.714 and 0.699,respectively.At a cut-off point of 3,the Ranson had a sensitivity of 75.0％,a specificity of 78.1％ and an overall accuracy of 77.6％,respectively.The Youden’s index and the AUC of the Ranson were 0.531 and 0.703,respectively.At a cut-off point of 5,the CTSI had a sensitivity of 82.7％,a specificity of 91.4％ and an overall accuracy of 90.0％,respectively.The Youden's index and the AUC of the CTSI were 0.741 and 0.777,respectively.The CTSI system was the best in predicting local complications with a Youden’s index of 0.766,and an AUC of 0.777,respectively. At a cut-off point of 5,the CTSI had a sensitivity of 85.4％,a specificity of 91.2％ and an overall accuracy of 90.3％,respectively.The APACHE-O system was the best in predicting systematic complications with a Youden’s index of 0.789 and an AUC of 0.779,respectively.At a cut -off point of 8,the CTSI had a sensitivity of 91.1 ％,a specificity of 87.8％ and an overall accuracy of 88.2％,respectively.The CTSI system was the best in predicting local complications with a Youden’s index 0.952 and an AUC of 0.847,respectively.At a cut-off point of 8,the CTSI had a sensitivity of 100％,a specificity of 95.2％,and an overall accuracy of 95.3％,respectively.Conclusions The results suggested that the CTSI is the most useful system in predicting local complications and morbidities of severe AP in the early period.The APACHE-O is most useful in predicting systemic complications of severe AP. Key words: Pancreatitis; Acute necrotizing; Research design; Prognosis